/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71351333/1412483714.0.jpg?ssl=1 "Should You Start David Montgomery in Week 1 Fantasy?")
Navigating Week 1 fantasy football decisions often hinges on identifying reliable players with favorable matchups, and this year, the spotlight is on Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery. As fantasy managers finalize their lineups for the September 7, 2025, kickoff, the question is whether to trust Montgomery against the Green Bay Packers. The key is understanding his touchdown dependency and role in the Lions’ evolving offense.
Montgomery’s Week 1 Outlook
David Montgomery enters Week 1 as a player surrounded by both optimism and caution. His 2024 season showcased his nose for the endzone, racking up 12 touchdowns as part of his 1,100+ scrimmage yards, ultimately finishing as RB18 in PPR formats. However, the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs and changes in the Lions’ coaching staff introduce some uncertainty. According to projections, Montgomery is largely viewed as a low-end RB2 or a high-end flex option for the opening week.
Favorable Historical Matchup
One compelling argument for starting Montgomery is his consistent performance against the Green Bay Packers. Since joining the Lions, Montgomery has thrived in this divisional rivalry. Over four games, he’s averaged an impressive 22 touches, 98 scrimmage yards, and 1.25 touchdowns per game. Notably, his success at Lambeau Field is particularly striking. In his last two appearances there, Montgomery has amassed 49 carries for 194 yards and three scores. This historical data suggests that Montgomery is a strong candidate to find the endzone, a crucial factor for his fantasy viability. As noted by FantasyPros, this matchup history provides a solid floor for his projected performance.
Touchdown Dependency
Despite the favorable matchup history, Montgomery’s fantasy value often hinges on his ability to score touchdowns. While he contributes in the running game, his yardage totals don’t always translate to high fantasy scores without those crucial trips to the endzone. Projections estimate his Week 1 PPR score around 12.6 points, with analysts suggesting a touchdown is essential for him to exceed 15 points. This reliance on touchdowns makes him a somewhat volatile option, as game flow and red-zone opportunities can significantly impact his output. FantasyData highlights this volatility, noting that without a touchdown, Montgomery’s ceiling is limited.
The Jahmyr Gibbs Factor
The presence of Jahmyr Gibbs introduces another layer of complexity to Montgomery’s fantasy outlook. Gibbs, known for his explosiveness and receiving ability, is expected to play a significant role in the Lions’ offense. While Montgomery is viewed as the primary early-down and goal-line back, Gibbs’ increasing involvement, especially in the red zone, could limit Montgomery’s scoring opportunities. The Detroit Lions official website lists Gibbs ahead of Montgomery on the depth chart, further emphasizing Gibbs’ potential impact. The narrowing gap in red-zone touches between the two backs is a key concern for fantasy managers relying on Montgomery.
Impact of Coaching Changes
The departure of former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson also raises questions about the Lions’ offensive scheme and how it will affect Montgomery’s usage. While the Lions’ offensive philosophy is expected to remain relatively consistent, any subtle changes in play-calling or personnel usage could impact Montgomery’s opportunities. It’s crucial to monitor how the new offensive coordinator utilizes both Montgomery and Gibbs in the early weeks of the season to gain a clearer understanding of their respective roles. According to Sports Illustrated, the initial game plan will offer valuable insights into the new coordinator’s approach.
Start or Sit: Weighing the Decision
Given the various factors at play, deciding whether to start or sit David Montgomery in Week 1 requires careful consideration of your team’s needs and risk tolerance. While his historical success against the Packers and potential for touchdowns make him an appealing option, the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs and the uncertainty surrounding the coaching changes introduce some risk. His average draft position (ADP) of RB24 reflects this uncertainty, but for Week 1, many analysts believe he offers a solid floor with touchdown upside.
Arguments for Starting Montgomery
- Favorable Matchup: His consistent production against the Packers, particularly at Lambeau Field, provides a strong foundation for potential success.
- Touchdown Upside: Montgomery’s nose for the endzone makes him a threat to score, which is crucial for fantasy production.
- No Injury Concerns: As of Week 1, Montgomery is not on the injury report and is expected to play a full complement of snaps.
Arguments for Sitting Montgomery
- Jahmyr Gibbs’ Role: Gibbs’ increasing involvement in the offense, especially in the red zone, could limit Montgomery’s opportunities.
- Touchdown Dependency: Without a touchdown, Montgomery’s yardage totals may not be enough to justify a starting spot.
- Coaching Change Uncertainty: The impact of the new offensive coordinator on Montgomery’s usage is still unknown.
Conclusion
Ultimately, the decision to start David Montgomery in Week 1 depends on your individual team composition and risk appetite. His history against Green Bay is compelling, suggesting a reasonable floor. However, fantasy managers must temper expectations, acknowledging the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs and the potential impact of the evolving Lions’ offense. Monitor his usage early in the game; if he’s getting the goal-line carries, he’s a solid play. If Gibbs is dominating touches, be prepared to adjust your expectations accordingly.
