Escalation’s Critical Test: Russia’s calculated strategy of gradual escalation is presenting a significant challenge to the West, demanding a unified and decisive response to prevent further destabilization. This approach, characterized by incremental provocations, aims to test the resolve of NATO and the European Union, probe for weaknesses, and ultimately undermine support for Ukraine. Recent events, particularly a series of aggressive actions in September 2025, underscore the urgency of the situation and the need for a comprehensive strategy to deter further Russian aggression. The stakes are high, with the potential for a broader conflict looming if the West fails to mount a credible and coordinated response.
Russia’s Calculated Provocations
Russia’s strategy involves a series of carefully calibrated actions designed to push boundaries and assess the West’s reaction. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this “salami slicing” tactic aims to normalize the idea of the conflict expanding into European territory. This approach includes not only direct military actions but also an intensified “shadow war” against Europe, encompassing sabotage, subversion, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. The Atlantic Council reports a near tripling of these attacks between 2023 and 2024, demonstrating a clear escalation in Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics.
Drone Incursion into Poland
A significant escalation occurred on September 10, 2025, when approximately 20 Russian drones and at least one missile entered Polish airspace. This unprecedented incursion prompted NATO to scramble jets and engage potential airborne threats within its own airspace, marking the first time the alliance directly confronted such a challenge. As Sky News reported, Poland invoked NATO’s Article 4, requesting consultations among allies due to the perceived threat to its territorial integrity. This incident served as a stark reminder of the potential for the conflict to spill over into NATO territory and the critical importance of a robust and coordinated response.
Attacks on Kyiv and Intensified Offensive
Prior to the drone incursion, Russia launched its largest drone and missile strike on Ukraine on September 7, 2025, hitting the main government building in Kyiv for the first time. Other escalatory actions included the bombing of a British Council building and an EU installation in Kyiv, as well as the jamming of a senior EU official’s plane’s GPS. Furthermore, Russia has intensified its offensive in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast, reportedly capitalizing on a scaling back of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine. These actions, according to Espreso, demonstrate a willingness to escalate the conflict and target key symbols of Ukrainian and Western presence in the country.
Broader Shadow War and Military Developments
Beyond direct military actions, Russia’s “shadow war” against Europe has intensified. This includes a range of subversive activities, such as sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns, aimed at undermining European stability and unity. The deployment of North Korean troops and the use of the intermediate-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik” in November 2024, as highlighted by The Jamestown Foundation, further illustrate Russia’s willingness to escalate the conflict and employ unconventional tactics.
Testing Western Resolve
Analysts suggest that Russia’s actions are a deliberate attempt to test NATO’s military response and Europe’s political unity and resolve to support Ukraine. According to RAND, these provocations aim to undermine Ukraine’s will to resist and weaken Western determination to confront Russian aggression. By gradually escalating, Russia seeks to expose perceived weaknesses within NATO, push against “red lines,” and normalize the idea that the conflict could expand into European territory.
Undermining Support for Ukraine
Russia’s strategy also aims to undermine international support for Ukraine by creating a sense of instability and uncertainty. The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) notes that Russia seeks to exploit divisions within the EU and NATO to weaken the alliance’s commitment to Ukraine. By demonstrating its willingness to escalate the conflict, Russia hopes to discourage further Western involvement and force Ukraine to negotiate on unfavorable terms.
Signaling Strength and Responding to Perceived Overreach
Furthermore, Russia may be signaling strength to its domestic audience amidst economic strain and casualties from the war, and reacting to what it perceives as Western overreach and NATO’s strengthening of its eastern flank. President Putin’s long-held view of Russia as a major global power with a legitimate sphere of influence, including Ukraine, underpins these actions. Teneo suggests that Putin’s perception of Western encroachment drives his determination to reassert Russia’s influence in the region.
The Impact and the Need for a Decisive Response
The gradual escalation poses a critical test for the West, with increased fears of the war spilling over and potentially leading to a broader conflict. The drone incursions into Polish airspace have specifically tested NATO’s readiness and its Article 5 collective defense obligations. There is concern that a weak or delayed response from the West could embolden Russia further, while a decisive reaction is seen as crucial for continental security.
Calls for Stronger Sanctions and a Robust Response
The situation has prompted calls for stronger, coordinated sanctions against Russia and a more robust, potentially asymmetric, response from NATO and EU members. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) argues that the West must impose greater costs on Moscow to deter further aggression. This could include measures such as increasing military aid to Ukraine, strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, and imposing targeted sanctions on key Russian officials and entities.
Addressing Intelligence Sharing and the Shadow War
The curtailment of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine is also impacting Ukraine’s military capabilities, particularly in critical areas like Kursk Oblast. Addressing this issue is crucial to ensuring that Ukraine has the resources and information it needs to defend itself. The ongoing “shadow war” suggests a Western failure to impose sufficient costs on Moscow. A more proactive and coordinated approach is needed to counter Russia’s subversive activities and protect European infrastructure and institutions.
Managing Escalation Risks
Overall, the conflict appears to be moving towards further military escalation rather than a diplomatic resolution, as the West grapples with managing escalation risks while continuing to support Ukraine. The key challenge lies in deterring further Russian aggression without provoking a wider conflict. This requires a delicate balance of strength and diplomacy, as well as a clear and consistent message that any further escalation will be met with a decisive and unified response.
In conclusion, Russia’s strategy of gradual escalation represents a calculated attempt to test the West’s resolve and undermine support for Ukraine. The events of September 2025, particularly the drone incursion into Poland, serve as a wake-up call, highlighting the urgent need for a coordinated and decisive response. The West must demonstrate its unwavering commitment to defending its values and deterring further Russian aggression to prevent a broader conflict and ensure continental security.
